Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-05-30 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-30

Daulton Varsho

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs BALBrandon Young
Sample2346.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.3
F 14.2
V 14.2
Model 18.7% Market 16.7% Gap +1.3pp
FanDuel 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 70.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.2% Market 67.9% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel -240 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +4.7pp
FanDuel 10000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
50
Exit velocity86.2
25
Hard-hit%40.2%
49
xBA0.326
53
xSLG0.467
34
xwOBA0.308
50 +16 vs proj
BB%9.4%
58 +22 vs proj
Bat speed71.0
72
K%19.2%
66 +44 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · CF
46
Arm Strength89.7 · CF
24
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
45
Range Runs0.4 · CF
61
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · CF
44
Sprint Speed27.2 · CF
47
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.9%
23
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.8%
78
Correct Decisions65.1%
38
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
40
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.273
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.339 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.389
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.343
RegressionNegative · -0.073
Opposing pitcherBrandon Young
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)