Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Daulton Varsho

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs CWSSean Burke
Sample2436.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.3
F 12.2
V 14.9
Model 18.7% Market 16.7% Gap +1.4pp
FanDuel 475 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.2% Market 71.0% Gap +9.2pp
FanDuel 165 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.8% Market -- Gap +2.2pp
FanDuel 400 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.1%
51
Exit velocity85.9
25
Hard-hit%39.8%
53
xBA0.309
35
xSLG0.468
34
xwOBA0.297
41
BB%8.4%
49
Bat speed70.9
70
K%19.6%
67 +44 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.8 · CF
27
Arm Strength89.7 · CF
20
Outs Above Avg4.0 · CF
95
Range Runs3.4 · CF
85
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.1 · CF
45
Sprint Speed27.3 · CF
48
SB Success Rate100.0% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.1%
25
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.0%
78
Correct Decisions65.0%
39
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
39
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.284 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.278
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.330
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.395
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.344
RegressionNegative · -0.042
Opposing pitcherSean Burke
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)