Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-07-21 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-21

Jahmai Jones

DET · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 2 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupDET vs CHCDavid Peterson
Sample355.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.5
F 15.5
V 14.1
Model 13.6% Market 13.8% Gap -0.7pp
DraftKings 600 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.1% Market 72.2% Gap +13.2pp
BetMGM -260 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.9%
47 -23 vs proj
Exit velocity89.9
73
Hard-hit%41.4%
61
xBA0.351
78
xSLG0.612
80
xwOBA0.304
47 -16 vs proj
BB%9.8%
66
Bat speed71.5
76
K%32.5%
7 -33 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · LF
Small sample
Outs Above Avg-0.3 · LF
32 Regression applied
Range Runs-1.5 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed28.6 · DH
84
SB Success Rate0.0% · DH
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 65.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.9%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.264 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.287 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.265
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.333
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.369
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline103
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.249 to 0.372
RegressionPositive · 0.014
Opposing pitcherDavid Peterson
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)