Mithrandir Metrics
STL 2026-07-18 Refreshed Jul 18 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-18

Lars Nootbaar

STL · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 5 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSTL vs AZ--
Sample1790.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits 0.5
P 98.0
F 98.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 98.0% Market -- Gap +47.6pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.6%
74
Exit velocity91.1
87
Hard-hit%51.3%
93
xBA0.349
78
xSLG0.630
83
xwOBA0.357
87
BB%13.2%
90
Bat speed70.3
60
K%21.5%
56
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.0 · LF
80
Arm Strength95.4 · LF
69
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs1.2 · LF
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.3 · LF
48
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.0%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.302 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.284
Small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.341
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.309 to 0.374
RegressionPositive · 0.010
Opposing pitcher--
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-18
Palantir 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d error falling
Fangorn 9540 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 3945 props Brier 0.119 ECE 0.005 14d error falling
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)