Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Nico Hoerner

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs MINZebby Matthews
Sample2998.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.3
F 8.6
V 13.0
Model 8.2% Market 7.7% Gap +0.2pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 59.2% Market 82.8% Gap +12.5pp
FanDuel 150 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 37.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 37.2% Market -- Gap +7.8pp
FanDuel 240 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.1%
5
Exit velocity85.9
25
Hard-hit%28.1%
11
xBA0.311
38
xSLG0.394
11
xwOBA0.317
62
BB%8.6%
50 +31 vs proj
Bat speed66.9
19
K%7.9%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
54
Arm Strength84.0 · 2B
32
Outs Above Avg8.0 · 2B
96
Range Runs6.2 · 2B
95
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.3 · 2B
95
SB Success Rate92.9% · 2B
84
Sprint Speed28.4 · 2B
79
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.6%
55
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9%
18
Correct Decisions63.6%
26
Resists FastballwOBA 0.320
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.336 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.237
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.340 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.365
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.010
Opposing pitcherZebby Matthews
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)