Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-07-25 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-25

Nico Hoerner

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs PITPaul Skenes
Sample3021.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 16 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 7.2
F 3.4
V 12.4
Model 6.5% Market 7.7% Gap -1.5pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 78.7% Market 79.8% Gap +15.2pp
BetMGM -395 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 28.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 28.7% Market -- Gap +1.6pp
FanDuel 230 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.1%
4
Exit velocity86.2
28
Hard-hit%28.2%
11
xBA0.319
48
xSLG0.402
13
xwOBA0.320
64
BB%8.2%
46 +26 vs proj
Bat speed66.9
18
K%8.2%
100
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
52
Arm Strength84.0 · 2B
30
Outs Above Avg9.0 · 2B
97
Range Runs7.0 · 2B
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.3 · 2B
95
SB Success Rate92.9% · 2B
84
Sprint Speed28.4 · 2B
79

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherPaul Skenes
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)