Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-08-08 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-08

Nico Hoerner

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs KCSeth Lugo
Sample3075.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.5
F 12.8
V 11.9
Model 7.6% Market 7.7% Gap -0.4pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 66.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.2% Market 81.1% Gap +14.8pp
BetMGM -430 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 34.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 34.8% Market -- Gap +3.7pp
FanDuel 160 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.3%
6
Exit velocity86.0
29
Hard-hit%28.7%
13
xBA0.328
60
xSLG0.414
19
xwOBA0.323
69
BB%7.6%
39 +19 vs proj
Bat speed66.8
18
K%9.0%
99
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
51
Arm Strength84.0 · 2B
29
Outs Above Avg7.0 · 2B
94
Range Runs4.5 · 2B
88
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs3.9 · 2B
94
SB Success Rate93.8% · 2B
86
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
76
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.0%
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.8%
20
Correct Decisions63.6%
26
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
37
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.359 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.231
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.336 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.364
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.013
Opposing pitcherSeth Lugo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)