Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Nico Hoerner

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs MILKyle Harrison
Sample3149.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.9
F 11.7
V 11.4
Model 10.8% Market 7.7% Gap +2.9pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 62.0% Market 84.5% Gap +16.9pp
FanDuel 120 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 37.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 37.4% Market -- Gap +4.1pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.3%
6
Exit velocity86.0
29
Hard-hit%28.5%
13
xBA0.333
67
xSLG0.417
19
xwOBA0.324
72
BB%6.9%
32
Bat speed66.8
19
K%8.9%
99
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
47
Arm Strength84.5 · 2B
25
Outs Above Avg9.0 · 2B
95
Range Runs7.1 · 2B
93
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs5.2 · 2B
97
SB Success Rate95.5% · 2B
87
Sprint Speed28.4 · 2B
79
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 64.9%
49
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.0%
18
Correct Decisions63.3%
23
Resists FastballwOBA 0.317
86
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.352 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.268 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.230
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.362
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.008
Opposing pitcherKyle Harrison
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)