Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Nico Hoerner

CHC · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs MIAJanson Junk
Sample3163.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 5.3
F 7.2
V 10.8
Model 6.1% Market 7.7% Gap -1.9pp
FanDuel 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.9% Market 81.1% Gap +16.7pp
FanDuel 150 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 38.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 38.7% Market -- Gap +10.1pp
FanDuel 250 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.4%
6
Exit velocity85.9
27
Hard-hit%28.6%
13
xBA0.330
63
xSLG0.414
18
xwOBA0.322
71
BB%6.9%
31
Bat speed66.8
20
K%8.9%
99
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · 2B
47
Arm Strength84.5 · 2B
27
Outs Above Avg9.0 · 2B
95
Range Runs6.5 · 2B
90
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs5.3 · 2B
97
SB Success Rate95.5% · 2B
87
Sprint Speed28.3 · 2B
76
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.9%
42
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.2%
18
Correct Decisions62.6%
20
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323
78
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline95
25
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.355 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.267 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.228
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.361
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.361
RegressionNegative · -0.011
Opposing pitcherJanson Junk
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)