Mithrandir Metrics
ATL 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Austin Riley

ATL · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 7 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupATL vs TEXNathan Eovaldi
Sample3495.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.0
F 12.2
V 14.7
Model 19.1% Market 16.2% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel 495 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.3% Market 79.6% Gap +11.6pp
FanDuel 150 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 22.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 22.4% Market -- Gap +1.4pp
FanDuel 370 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.8%
77
Exit velocity90.2
77
Hard-hit%42.6%
66 -24 vs proj
xBA0.304
29
xSLG0.550
63
xwOBA0.292
34 -45 vs proj
BB%8.3%
47
Bat speed73.9
94
K%28.1%
22
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.0 · 3B
27
Arm Strength87.2 · 3B
56
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 3B
12
Range Runs-2.4 · 3B
24
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.9 · 3B
87
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
93
Sprint Speed27.8 · 3B
61
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 62.6%
35
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.2%
39
Correct Decisions63.3%
23
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.271 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.259 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.263
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.373
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.297 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.017
Opposing pitcherNathan Eovaldi
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)