Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-06-14 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-14

Trevor Larnach

MIN · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs STLMichael McGreevy
Sample1634.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.4
F 15.7
V 15.7
Model 16.4% Market 12.0% Gap +4.0pp
DraftKings 705 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 51.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 51.7% Market 66.8% Gap +2.1pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 18.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 18.1% Market -- Gap +5.9pp
FanDuel 320 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.6%
44 -20 vs proj
Exit velocity86.2
25
Hard-hit%29.8%
14 -54 vs proj
xBA0.314
40
xSLG0.460
32
xwOBA0.317
58
BB%12.5%
84 +27 vs proj
Bat speed69.2
45
K%19.9%
62
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.0 · LF
96
Arm Strength91.4 · LF
39
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · LF
4
Range Runs-2.6 · LF
14
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.5 · LF
59
Sprint Speed26.8 · LF
36
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions62.9%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.303 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.302 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.256
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.353 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.358
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.053
Opposing pitcherMichael McGreevy
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)