Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Trevor Larnach

MIN · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupMIN vs DETJackson Jobe
Sample1815.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.6
F 12.1
V 8.9
Model 16.0% Market 12.0% Gap +3.5pp
DraftKings 705 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 51.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 51.7% Market 69.7% Gap +12.3pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 16.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.1% Market -- Gap +5.2pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.5%
60
Exit velocity87.4
45
Hard-hit%36.9%
43 -31 vs proj
xBA0.328
60
xSLG0.501
51
xwOBA0.331
78
BB%10.3%
71
Bat speed70.1
56
K%17.3%
81 +22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.0 · LF
91
Arm Strength91.4 · LF
31
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · LF
5
Range Runs-3.2 · LF
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.4 · LF
53
Sprint Speed26.7 · LF
31
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.9%
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5%
29
Correct Decisions64.5%
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
47
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.321 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.300 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.252
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.358
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.356
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.031
Opposing pitcherJackson Jobe
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)