Mithrandir Metrics
MIN 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Trevor Larnach

MIN · Hitter · bats L · age 29
IN · 7 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupMIN vs CWSErick Fedde
Sample1824.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.5
F 12.0
V 7.7
Model 14.3% Market 12.0% Gap +1.9pp
DraftKings 705 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 51.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 51.9% Market 69.7% Gap +12.4pp
FanDuel 145 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 16.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.8% Market -- Gap +7.1pp
FanDuel 320 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.6%
61
Exit velocity87.6
46
Hard-hit%37.4%
46
xBA0.327
59
xSLG0.498
49
xwOBA0.331
78
BB%10.3%
71
Bat speed70.2
59
K%17.3%
81
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs2.1 · LF
92
Arm Strength91.4 · LF
30
Outs Above Avg-4.0 · LF
5
Range Runs-3.6 · LF
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.3 · LF
50
Sprint Speed26.7 · LF
30
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.2%
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.7%
26
Correct Decisions64.5%
33
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.324 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.259
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.357
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.360
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.300 to 0.365
RegressionNegative · -0.032
Opposing pitcherErick Fedde
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)