Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-08-09 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-09

Ke'Bryan Hayes

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 9 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupCIN vs WSHBrad Lord
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 13 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 58.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 70.8% Market 71.8% Gap +12.9pp
BetMGM -255 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.2%
56
Exit velocity90.7
84
Hard-hit%42.5%
68
xBA0.318
49
xSLG0.507
50
xwOBA0.302
44
BB%6.8%
30
Bat speed69.0
41
K%19.8%
66
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength80.7 · 3B
7
Outs Above Avg2.0 · 3B
78
Range Runs0.9 · 3B
63
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · 3B
36

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.277 to 0.340
RegressionPositive · 0.046
Opposing pitcherBrad Lord
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)