Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Cal Raleigh

SEA · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 3 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs SFLanden Roupp
Sample2406.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.6
F 12.6
V 16.0
Model 17.2% Market 25.8% Gap +6.1pp
DraftKings 275 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.2
F 63.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 63.0 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 73.5% Market 74.4% Gap +10.1pp
BetMGM -290 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
71 -23 vs proj
Exit velocity88.4
52
Hard-hit%33.7%
27 -59 vs proj
xBA0.288
20
xSLG0.570
69
xwOBA0.288
29 -57 vs proj
BB%11.8%
83
Bat speed72.3
81
K%32.7%
7 -19 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.0 · C
97
Catcher Throwing-0.6 · C
32
Framing Runs-0.8 · C
35
Pop Time2.0 · C
15
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.8 · C
14
SB Success Rate66.7% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.6%
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0%
84
Correct Decisions65.2%
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.253 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.293
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.297 to 0.394
RegressionPositive · 0.006
Opposing pitcherLanden Roupp
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)