Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Cal Raleigh

SEA · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 5 Positive regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs SFRobbie Ray
Sample2412.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.2
F 9.6
V 15.3
Model 17.4% Market 25.1% Gap +5.1pp
DraftKings 285 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 64.9% Market 73.3% Gap +9.9pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 15.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.0% Market -- Gap +5.4pp
FanDuel 440 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
70 -24 vs proj
Exit velocity88.2
50
Hard-hit%33.7%
27 -60 vs proj
xBA0.283
16
xSLG0.560
67
xwOBA0.287
29 -57 vs proj
BB%12.0%
85
Bat speed72.3
81
K%32.2%
8 -18 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.0 · C
97
Catcher Throwing-0.6 · C
32
Framing Runs-0.8 · C
35
Pop Time2.0 · C
15
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.8 · C
14
SB Success Rate66.7% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.6%
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0%
84
Correct Decisions65.2%
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.253 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.293
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.297 to 0.394
RegressionPositive · 0.006
Opposing pitcherRobbie Ray
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)