Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-07-26 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-26

Cal Raleigh

SEA · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 6 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupSEA vs TEXJacob deGrom
Sample2434.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 16.5
F 12.2
V 14.0
Model 22.8% Market 26.3% Gap -3.6pp
BetMGM 280 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 60.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 73.5% Market 74.4% Gap +13.4pp
BetMGM -290 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 15.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 15.1% Market -- Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel 500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
71 -24 vs proj
Exit velocity88.3
53
Hard-hit%33.7%
27 -60 vs proj
xBA0.281
14
xSLG0.555
65
xwOBA0.287
29 -58 vs proj
BB%11.7%
83
Bat speed72.4
82
K%31.9%
9 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.4 · C
97
Catcher Throwing-1.0 · C
24
Framing Runs-1.9 · C
28
Pop Time2.0 · C
13
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.7 · C
13
SB Success Rate66.7% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.6%
27
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.0%
84
Correct Decisions65.2%
40
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline100
46
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.254 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.253 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.298
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.320 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.293
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.297 to 0.394
RegressionPositive · 0.009
Opposing pitcherJacob deGrom
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)