Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-08-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-25

Cal Raleigh

SEA · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 5 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSEA vs PHIAaron Nola
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 19 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.6
F 11.7
V 16.2
Model 20.5% Market 26.0% Gap -5.4pp
BetMGM 285 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 42.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 43.2% Market 42.5% Gap +0.3pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.5%
83
Exit velocity89.5
70
Hard-hit%37.6%
46 -43 vs proj
xBA0.284
16
xSLG0.592
77
xwOBA0.302
46 -46 vs proj
BB%12.7%
90
Bat speed72.5
85
K%31.1%
12
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs3.2 · C
100
Catcher Throwing-2.1 · C
9
Framing Runs-1.2 · C
32
Pop Time2.0 · C
13
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.9 · C
15
SB Success Rate66.7% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 61.3%
31
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.1%
84
Correct Decisions64.9%
38
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline101
50

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.297 to 0.393
RegressionPositive · 0.011
Opposing pitcherAaron Nola
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)