Mithrandir Metrics
SEA 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Cal Raleigh

SEA · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 3 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSEA vs ATHJeffrey Springs
Sample2562.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 13.4
F 11.7
V 14.8
Model 19.2% Market 25.1% Gap +3.3pp
DraftKings 285 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 72.4% Market 73.3% Gap +13.7pp
BetMGM -275 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.3%
89
Exit velocity89.8
76
Hard-hit%39.0%
53 -36 vs proj
xBA0.299
28
xSLG0.629
86
xwOBA0.312
61 -32 vs proj
BB%12.8%
91
Bat speed72.6
85
K%31.5%
12 -17 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.6 · C
95
Catcher Throwing-2.7 · C
6
Framing Runs-3.6 · C
17
Pop Time2.0 · C
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed25.9 · C
15
SB Success Rate66.7% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.7%
28
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.9%
80
Correct Decisions64.1%
29
Resists FastballwOBA 0.311
91
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline99
43
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.265 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.269 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.293
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.332 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.390
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.297 to 0.394
RegressionPositive · 0.003
Opposing pitcherJeffrey Springs
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)