Mithrandir Metrics
NYY 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Trent Grisham

NYY · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 7 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupNYY vs SDWalker Buehler
Sample2844.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 53.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 63.1% Market 64.3% Gap +10.9pp
BetMGM -180 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
72
Exit velocity90.7
86
Hard-hit%45.7%
82
xBA0.311
40
xSLG0.545
64
xwOBA0.337
82
BB%12.7%
90
Bat speed69.0
41
K%18.5%
73 +40 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.4 · CF
61
Arm Strength94.5 · CF
58
Outs Above Avg-6.0 · CF
3
Range Runs-5.1 · CF
11
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.9 · CF
13
SB Success Rate77.8% · CF
41
Sprint Speed26.8 · CF
32
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.7%
95
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.0%
18
Correct Decisions67.7%
66
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
70
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.279
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.302 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.331
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.378
RegressionPositive · 0.011
Opposing pitcherWalker Buehler
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)