Mithrandir Metrics
DET 2026-07-01 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-01

Matt Vierling

DET · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 3 Positive regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupDET vs NYYWill Warren
Sample1693.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.9
F 26.0
V 12.4
Model 20.6% Market 11.2% Gap +9.1pp
DraftKings 765 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.9% Market 76.7% Gap +12.7pp
BetMGM -330 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.3%
40
Exit velocity87.4
39
Hard-hit%35.9%
34 -34 vs proj
xBA0.304
29
xSLG0.465
34
xwOBA0.302
44
BB%7.1%
32
Bat speed69.9
53
K%16.2%
82 +32 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-2.0 · CF
6
Arm Strength87.2 · CF
10
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
11
Range Runs1.1 · CF
64
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · CF
34
Bolts1.0 · CF
14
Sprint Speed28.4 · CF
79
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 29.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions65.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.350 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.308
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.325
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline98
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.265 to 0.374
RegressionPositive · 0.007
Opposing pitcherWill Warren
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)