Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-05-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-24

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 8 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs STLMatthew Liberatore
Sample1877.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 21 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 9.1
F 17.2
V 12.9
Model 18.9% Market 13.3% Gap +5.1pp
DraftKings 625 tracking Open board
Total Bases 1.5
P 55.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.5% Market 69.5% Gap -3.5pp
FanDuel 140 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.3%
76
Exit velocity91.2
84
Hard-hit%45.7%
74
xBA0.315
39
xSLG0.601
76
xwOBA0.321
58
BB%12.1%
79 +32 vs proj
Bat speed68.8
37
K%29.1%
17
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.2 · C
100
Catcher Throwing0.3 · C
55
Framing Runs-4.6 · C
2
Pop Time2.0 · C
16
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · C
41
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.0%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 33.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.245 · small sample
small sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.355
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherMatthew Liberatore
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)