Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 8 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs AZEduardo Rodriguez
Sample1919.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.9
F 15.7
V 15.7
Model 18.2% Market 13.1% Gap +4.7pp
DraftKings 640 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.1
F 73.3 EXPERIMENTAL
V 71.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 55.1% Market 68.5% Gap +2.3pp
FanDuel 140 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 18.2
F 20.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 18.2% Market -- Gap +4.5pp
FanDuel 340 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
77 +15 vs proj
Exit velocity91.2
86
Hard-hit%45.6%
75
xBA0.326
53
xSLG0.604
75
xwOBA0.331
68 +18 vs proj
BB%11.8%
81 +32 vs proj
Bat speed69.2
44
K%26.9%
26
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.7 · C
100
Catcher Throwing1.0 · C
77
Framing Runs-7.0 · C
2
Pop Time2.0 · C
22
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.9 · C
39
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.2%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.8%
Small sample
Correct Decisions74.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.277 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.253
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.303 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.323
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.431
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.355
RegressionNegative · -0.012
Opposing pitcherEduardo Rodriguez
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)