Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-12 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-12

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 6 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCIN vs CHCMatthew Boyd
Sample1977.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.3
F 15.5
V 14.1
Model 17.7% Market 13.1% Gap +4.2pp
DraftKings 640 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 55.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 55.4% Market 71.8% Gap +9.5pp
FanDuel 140 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 16.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.9% Market -- Gap +5.4pp
FanDuel 350 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.6%
73
Exit velocity91.0
86
Hard-hit%46.7%
82
xBA0.339
67
xSLG0.602
77
xwOBA0.330
71 +18 vs proj
BB%10.6%
73 +23 vs proj
Bat speed69.2
43
K%26.4%
29
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.5 · C
100
Catcher Throwing-0.7 · C
32
Framing Runs-9.4 · C
1
Pop Time2.0 · C
30
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · C
39
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions74.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.298 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.441
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.355
RegressionNegative · -0.017
Opposing pitcherMatthew Boyd
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)