Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-07-21 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-21

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 5 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs SEALuis Castillo
Sample1992.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.1
F 12.2
V 13.5
Model 15.6% Market 12.3% Gap +2.9pp
DraftKings 685 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.2% Market 69.2% Gap +11.7pp
BetMGM -225 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.3%
81 +16 vs proj
Exit velocity91.1
87
Hard-hit%47.4%
84
xBA0.350
78
xSLG0.639
85
xwOBA0.341
78 +24 vs proj
BB%10.1%
69 +17 vs proj
Bat speed69.2
43
K%26.2%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.7 · C
100
Catcher Throwing-1.2 · C
17
Framing Runs-10.2 · C
1
Pop Time2.0 · C
29
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · C
40
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.3%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions74.1%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.276 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.270 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.255
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.298 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.331
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.441
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.355
RegressionNegative · -0.015
Opposing pitcherLuis Castillo
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)