Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-08-17 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-17

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 3 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs STLAndre Pallante
Sample2053.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.4
F 12.8
V 12.6
Model 16.0% Market 12.3% Gap +3.2pp
DraftKings 685 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 57.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 68.3% Market 69.2% Gap +12.2pp
BetMGM -225 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.7%
85 +18 vs proj
Exit velocity91.3
89
Hard-hit%47.1%
85
xBA0.358
85
xSLG0.661
91
xwOBA0.349
87 +31 vs proj
BB%10.7%
75 +22 vs proj
Bat speed68.9
41
K%26.4%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.7 · C
97
Catcher Throwing-0.8 · C
27
Framing Runs-8.9 · C
3
Pop Time2.0 · C
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · C
39
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 76.1%
94
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 22.5%
76
Correct Decisions73.8%
97
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline113
95
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.286 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.278 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.246
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.299 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.448
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.272 to 0.355
RegressionNegative · -0.012
Opposing pitcherAndre Pallante
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)