Mithrandir Metrics
CIN 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Tyler Stephenson

CIN · Hitter
IN · 5 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCIN vs SDMichael King
Sample2098.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.7
F 11.9
V 12.6
Model 16.7% Market 12.3% Gap +3.9pp
DraftKings 685 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 51.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 51.4% Market 68.8% Gap +12.3pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 13.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 13.6% Market -- Gap +12.5pp
FanDuel 320 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.8%
85 +20 vs proj
Exit velocity91.3
90
Hard-hit%46.7%
86
xBA0.355
85
xSLG0.659
91
xwOBA0.337
82 +26 vs proj
BB%10.0%
67
Bat speed68.8
38
K%28.0%
24
Defense · percentile strip
Blocking Runs2.9 · C
98
Catcher Throwing-0.7 · C
31
Framing Runs-9.1 · C
2
Pop Time2.0 · C
18
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · C
39
SB Success Rate0.0% · C
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 75.6%
95
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.7%
65
Correct Decisions72.5%
94
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline112
93
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.285 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.252
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.310 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.332
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.443
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range--
RegressionNegative · -0.019
Opposing pitcherMichael King
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)