Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-05-23 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-23

Jake Mangum

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 1 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupPIT vs TORPatrick Corbin
Sample493.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 22 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 1.4
F 3.4
V 2.5
Model 5.6% Market 8.0% Gap -2.4pp
BetMGM 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 26.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 26.7% Market 27.9% Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.0%
2 -15 vs proj
Exit velocity79.9
3
Hard-hit%26.9%
9 -16 vs proj
xBA0.326
50
xSLG0.390
14
xwOBA0.277
20
BB%7.0%
29
Bat speed63.6
4
K%23.5%
40 -47 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength88.9 · LF
22
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · LF
7
Arm Runs0.3 · LF
Small sample
Range Runs-0.9 · LF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Bolts2.0 · LF
35
Sprint Speed29.0 · LF
93
SB Success Rate100.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.1%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 33.3%
Small sample
Correct Decisions61.5%
Small sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.166
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.253 to 0.326
RegressionNegative · -0.063
Opposing pitcherPatrick Corbin
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)