Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Jake Mangum

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs CLEGavin Williams
Sample634.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 7.7
F 12.0
V 11.3
Model 7.7% Market 7.7% Gap -0.3pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 45.7
F 62.1 EXPERIMENTAL
V 65.7 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 45.7% Market 74.7% Gap +10.2pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.6
F 22.2 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 24.6% Market -- Gap +8.7pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.1%
5
Exit velocity82.3
5
Hard-hit%27.1%
10 -19 vs proj
xBA0.319
47
xSLG0.407
14
xwOBA0.291
33
BB%5.2%
14
Bat speed64.2
4
K%17.8%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · CF
50
Arm Strength98.5 · CF
89
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
11
Range Runs0.5 · CF
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.4 · CF
78
Bolts28.0 · CF
88
SB Success Rate76.9% · CF
39
Sprint Speed29.3 · CF
94
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 47.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions57.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.329
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline85
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.253 to 0.326
RegressionNegative · -0.083
Opposing pitcherGavin Williams
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)