Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Jake Mangum

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs CLEJoey Cantillo
Sample644.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.2
F 7.4
V 13.1
Model 7.2% Market 7.7% Gap -0.8pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 45.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 45.8% Market 75.0% Gap +10.5pp
FanDuel 130 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.8% Market -- Gap +8.5pp
FanDuel 200 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.1%
5
Exit velocity82.3
5
Hard-hit%27.1%
10 -19 vs proj
xBA0.319
48
xSLG0.407
14
xwOBA0.291
34
BB%5.2%
15
Bat speed64.2
4
K%17.8%
75
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.1 · CF
50
Arm Strength98.5 · CF
89
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · CF
11
Range Runs0.5 · CF
50
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · CF
70
Bolts28.0 · CF
88
SB Success Rate71.4% · CF
28
Sprint Speed29.3 · CF
94
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 47.8%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
Small sample
Correct Decisions57.3%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.296 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.285 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.330 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.361
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.329
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline85
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.253 to 0.326
RegressionNegative · -0.083
Opposing pitcherJoey Cantillo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)