Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Jake Mangum

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 30
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs CHCShota Imanaga
Sample799.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 8.0
F 10.3
V 9.1
Model 8.6% Market 7.7% Gap +0.6pp
DraftKings 1150 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 74.5% Market 75.6% Gap +14.6pp
BetMGM -310 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%1.3%
5
Exit velocity83.0
8
Hard-hit%26.6%
9 -22 vs proj
xBA0.314
45
xSLG0.412
17
xwOBA0.284
28
BB%5.1%
15
Bat speed64.6
6
K%19.9%
66 -22 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.8 · CF
74
Arm Strength98.5 · CF
85
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · CF
24
Range Runs1.7 · CF
66
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs1.0 · CF
63
Bolts58.0 · CF
94
SB Success Rate66.7% · CF
20
Sprint Speed29.5 · CF
95
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 52.0%
6
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 23.9%
65
Correct Decisions60.8%
10
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline89
10
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.309 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.267
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.340
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.253 to 0.326
RegressionNegative · -0.060
Opposing pitcherShota Imanaga
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)