Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-08-24 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-24

Ian Happ

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupCHC vs AZMerrill Kelly
Sample4304.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.9
F 12.4
V 13.9
Model 19.2% Market 14.8% Gap +3.8pp
FanDuel 550 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 39.8
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 38.8% Market 38.4% Gap +1.5pp
FanDuel 150 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.3%
71
Exit velocity89.0
62
Hard-hit%42.0%
67
xBA0.313
42
xSLG0.608
81
xwOBA0.311
56 -29 vs proj
BB%13.2%
91
Bat speed70.4
62
K%30.0%
15 -23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs3.9 · LF
97
Arm Strength91.4 · LF
31
Outs Above Avg0.0 · LF
46
Range Runs0.2 · LF
47
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.7 · LF
27
Sprint Speed27.9 · LF
62
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.5%
85
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
58
Correct Decisions69.4%
83
Resists FastballwOBA 0.328
72
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.317 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.375 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.375
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.390
RegressionNegative · -0.038
Opposing pitcherMerrill Kelly
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)