Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-08-31 Refreshed Aug 31 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-08-31

Ian Happ

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs MILKyle Harrison
Sample4325.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.061, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.045, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.077, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.7
F 12.6
V 13.8
Model 21.5% Market 14.8% Gap +6.1pp
FanDuel 550 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 62.1
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 75.5% Market 76.5% Gap +14.3pp
BetMGM -325 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.4%
72
Exit velocity88.8
61
Hard-hit%41.4%
64
xBA0.316
47
xSLG0.612
81
xwOBA0.312
59 -28 vs proj
BB%12.8%
90
Bat speed70.3
61
K%29.9%
16 -23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs3.9 · LF
97
Arm Strength91.4 · LF
31
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs0.7 · LF
55
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · LF
25
Sprint Speed28.0 · LF
66
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.1%
84
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
57
Correct Decisions69.2%
80
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329
68
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline108
84
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.322 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.292 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.272
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.375 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.372
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.390
RegressionNegative · -0.040
Opposing pitcherKyle Harrison
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-08-31
Palantir 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17748 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12111 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1556 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1052 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.017 14d error rising
Palantir 8442 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.048 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 663 props Brier 0.164 ECE 0.032 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 870 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.062 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)