Mithrandir Metrics
CHC 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Ian Happ

CHC · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 4 Negative regression Pitcher-Friendly
MatchupCHC vs MIAJanson Junk
Sample4334.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 26 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 12.6
F 12.5
V 12.1
Model 18.0% Market 14.8% Gap +2.6pp
FanDuel 550 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.9% Market 76.5% Gap +14.9pp
FanDuel 150 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.6% Market -- Gap +3.7pp
FanDuel 380 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%6.5%
74
Exit velocity88.9
62
Hard-hit%41.3%
63
xBA0.315
45
xSLG0.610
82
xwOBA0.311
57 -31 vs proj
BB%12.6%
90
Bat speed70.3
61
K%30.0%
16 -23 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs3.8 · LF
97
Arm Strength92.0 · LF
39
Outs Above Avg1.0 · LF
80
Range Runs0.6 · LF
53
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.9 · LF
26
Sprint Speed28.0 · LF
66
SB Success Rate66.7% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 72.0%
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.5%
57
Correct Decisions69.1%
80
Resists FastballwOBA 0.329
69
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
83
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.323 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.290 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.270
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.372 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.366
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.294 to 0.390
RegressionNegative · -0.038
Opposing pitcherJanson Junk
EnvironmentPitcher-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)