Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-06-02 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Brandon Lowe

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs HOUMike Burrows
Sample2865.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 19.6
F 17.2
V 17.2
Model 18.6% Market 20.4% Gap -1.8pp
BetMGM 390 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%11.1%
74 +31 vs proj
Barrel%9.1%
89 +15 vs proj
Bat speed70.2
57
Exit velocity90.4
77
Hard-hit%47.2%
82
K%25.0%
34
xBA0.364
83
xSLG0.719
93
xwOBA0.373
90 +15 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.1 · 2B
21
Outs Above Avg5.0 · 2B
96
Range Runs4.5 · 2B
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.5 · 2B
30
Sprint Speed27.0 · 2B
42
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.3% · rebadged research
40
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 27.5% · rebadged research
27
Correct Decisions64.2% · rebadged research
31
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.287 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.308 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.292 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.348 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.420 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.335 · validated
validated

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.375
RegressionNegative · -0.026
Opposing pitcherMike Burrows
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-02
Palantir 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d error rising
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)