Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-06-14 Refreshed Sep 3 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-14

Brandon Lowe

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 4 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPIT vs MIAMax Meyer
Sample2906.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.043, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.046, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 23.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 22.2% Market 19.4% Gap +2.0pp
FanDuel 395 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 61.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 61.0% Market 70.9% Gap +2.5pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 20.7
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 20.7% Market -- Gap +5.6pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%8.2%
85
Exit velocity90.4
78
Hard-hit%45.7%
75
xBA0.354
76
xSLG0.688
90
xwOBA0.360
84
BB%10.9%
73 +28 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
66
K%25.2%
33
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.1 · 2B
17
Outs Above Avg5.0 · 2B
94
Range Runs3.6 · 2B
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.0 · 2B
39
Sprint Speed26.8 · 2B
36
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.5%
39
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.7%
35
Correct Decisions64.6%
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
33
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.309 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.345 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.415
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.343
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.375
RegressionNegative · -0.028
Opposing pitcherMax Meyer
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-03
Palantir 18276 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18276 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12618 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1610 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1106 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8710 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 690 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 910 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.058 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)