Mithrandir Metrics
PIT 2026-06-17 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-17

Brandon Lowe

PIT · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPIT vs ATHAaron Civale
Sample2921.0career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 21.3
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 20.2% Market 19.9% Gap -0.4pp
DraftKings 385 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.8%
82
Exit velocity90.2
75
Hard-hit%44.3%
70
xBA0.342
70
xSLG0.663
87
xwOBA0.346
78
BB%10.7%
72 +27 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
66
K%25.9%
30
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.1 · 2B
17
Outs Above Avg5.0 · 2B
94
Range Runs4.7 · 2B
94
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs0.0 · 2B
40
Sprint Speed26.8 · 2B
36
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 63.0%
37
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 26.8%
35
Correct Decisions64.3%
32
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
31
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.299 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.309 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.288
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.343 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.412
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.343
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.301 to 0.375
RegressionNegative · -0.027
Opposing pitcherAaron Civale
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)