Mithrandir Metrics
SF 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Harrison Bader

SF · Hitter · bats R · age 32
IL60 · 9 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSF vs SDRobbie Ray
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 24 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run --
Home Run · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Total Bases 0.5
P 56.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 66.9% Market 67.7% Gap +11.7pp
BetMGM -210 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%5.3%
57
Exit velocity89.2
66
Hard-hit%41.1%
63 +18 vs proj
xBA0.316
48
xSLG0.540
62
xwOBA0.272
21
BB%4.4%
10
Bat speed70.7
67
K%31.6%
11 -32 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs-0.3 · CF
44
Arm Strength93.1 · CF
47
Outs Above Avg0.0 · CF
50
Range Runs0.1 · CF
48
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.5 · CF
50
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 55.6%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 28.9%
Small sample
Correct Decisions59.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.283 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.273 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.283
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.325 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.312
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.344
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline88
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.263 to 0.325
RegressionPositive · 0.021
Opposing pitcherRobbie Ray
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)