Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-07-07 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-07

Alec Bohm

PHI · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 4 Negative regression Hitter-Friendly
MatchupPHI vs CINAndrew Abbott
Sample3019.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 23 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.8
F 15.6
V 16.0
Model 19.6% Market 11.1% Gap +8.1pp
DraftKings 775 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.6
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 64.6% Market 83.0% Gap +12.6pp
FanDuel -115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 27.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 27.2% Market -- Gap +9.2pp
FanDuel 175 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.6%
27 -16 vs proj
Exit velocity90.2
75
Hard-hit%40.9%
58
xBA0.293
22
xSLG0.442
27
xwOBA0.302
45 -26 vs proj
BB%6.6%
26
Bat speed69.5
48
K%14.2%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.2 · 3B
17
Outs Above Avg-1.0 · 3B
27
Range Runs-3.1 · 3B
21
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.5 · 3B
27
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 71.8%
83
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 24.7%
55
Correct Decisions69.8%
84
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
80
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.284 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.303
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.347 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.326
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.307
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.021
Opposing pitcherAndrew Abbott
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)