Mithrandir Metrics
PHI 2026-09-04 Refreshed Sep 4 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-04

Alec Bohm

PHI · Hitter · bats R · age 30
IN · 5 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupPHI vs ATLChris Sale
Sample3194.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.067, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.049, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 10.4
F 12.0
V 6.8
Model 16.7% Market 11.1% Gap +5.3pp
DraftKings 775 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 65.0% Market 83.0% Gap +17.5pp
FanDuel 135 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 24.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 24.4% Market -- Gap +3.4pp
FanDuel 260 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.2%
39
Exit velocity90.5
84
Hard-hit%42.5%
70
xBA0.308
37
xSLG0.482
43
xwOBA0.321
69
BB%6.7%
29
Bat speed69.8
51
K%14.1%
91
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength82.2 · 3B
11
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · 3B
13
Range Runs-6.1 · 3B
9
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.8 · 3B
27
Sprint Speed26.5 · 3B
26
SB Success Rate100.0% · 3B
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 70.2%
74
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 25.5%
45
Correct Decisions69.0%
79
Resists FastballwOBA 0.336
53
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline105
70
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.294 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.304
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.358 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.299
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.298 to 0.382
RegressionNegative · -0.006
Opposing pitcherChris Sale
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-04
Palantir 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18372 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Valinor 12714 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1629 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1125 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.013 14d stable
Palantir 8804 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 700 props Brier 0.165 ECE 0.033 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 922 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)