Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-05-19 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-05-19

Nathan Lukes

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IL10 · 6 Hitter-Friendly
MatchupTOR vs NYYWill Warren
Sample--career MLB AB
PROPS 1 available PERCENTILES 18 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 4.8
F 26.0
V 11.1
Model 16.9% Market 9.1% Gap +7.5pp
DraftKings 960 tracking Open board
Total Bases --
Total Bases · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.0%
2 -19 vs proj
Exit velocity87.2
32
Hard-hit%37.5%
36
xBA0.301
28
xSLG0.398
16
xwOBA0.281
24 -25 vs proj
BB%5.6%
17 -26 vs proj
Bat speed66.4
15
K%12.5%
93
Defense · percentile strip
Outs Above Avg1.0 · RF
83
Arm Runs0.8 · RF
Small sample
Range Runs0.3 · RF
Small sample
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · RF
47
SB Success Rate0.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.0%
40
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.7%
18
Correct Decisions65.8%
26
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline96
23

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.347
RegressionNo current flag
Opposing pitcherWill Warren
EnvironmentHitter-Friendly
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)