Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-06-02 Refreshed Jun 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-02

Nathan Lukes

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 6 Neutral
MatchupTOR vs ATLBryce Elder
Sample563.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.055, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.4
F 17.2
V 17.2
Model 12.5% Market 9.1% Gap +3.1pp
DraftKings 960 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 54.0
F 69.6 EXPERIMENTAL
V 73.0 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 54.0% Market 69.0% Gap +2.4pp
FanDuel 115 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 2.0
F 2.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +13.6pp
FanDuel 5500 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
BB%6.2%
21 -21 vs proj
Barrel%1.0%
5 -18 vs proj
Bat speed66.4
15
Exit velocity86.9
31
Hard-hit%38.4%
43
K%14.4%
88
xBA0.372
86
xSLG0.481
40
xwOBA0.336
71 +20 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Strength92.4 · RF
53
Outs Above Avg1.0 · RF
80
Arm Runs0.8 · RF
Limited
Range Runs0.4 · RF
Limited
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.1 · RF
45
SB Success Rate0.0% · RF
Limited
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 59.5% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 33.1% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Correct Decisions62.8% · rebadged research
rebadged research
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.291 · borderline
borderline
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.281 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.286 · validated thin sample
validated thin sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.331 · insufficient sample
insufficient sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.353 · validated
validated
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.337 · validated
validated
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline90
Limited

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.347
RegressionNo current flag
Opposing pitcherBryce Elder
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-02
Palantir 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.030 14d stable
Fangorn 3219 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 14d error rising
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)