Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-06-09 Refreshed Sep 1 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-09

Nathan Lukes

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs PHIZack Wheeler
Sample589.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.079, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.047, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Pitcher Outs · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.064, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.2
F 17.2
V 17.2
Model 12.4% Market 9.1% Gap +2.9pp
DraftKings 960 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 51.3
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 51.3% Market 67.4% Gap +2.2pp
FanDuel 140 tracking Open board
Hits 0.5
P 2.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 2.0% Market -- Gap +14.8pp
FanDuel 10000 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.8%
4 -17 vs proj
Exit velocity85.9
22
Hard-hit%34.4%
28
xBA0.343
69
xSLG0.438
26
xwOBA0.319
58
BB%5.8%
18 -24 vs proj
Bat speed66.3
14
K%13.2%
91
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.2 · RF
63
Arm Strength92.4 · RF
53
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
44
Range Runs-0.0 · RF
55
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed27.0 · LF
41
SB Success Rate0.0% · LF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 58.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 32.7%
Small sample
Correct Decisions61.7%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.283 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.287
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.324 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.360
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.336
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline87
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.347
RegressionNegative · -0.108
Opposing pitcherZack Wheeler
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-01
Palantir 17901 props Brier 0.117 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 17901 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12243 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.005 14d stable
Palantir 1577 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1073 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.016 14d error rising
Palantir 8544 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 673 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 891 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.060 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)