Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-07-19 Refreshed Jul 20 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-19

Nathan Lukes

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 2 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs CWSSean Burke
Sample692.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 25 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.097, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Valinor calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.076, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.065, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Palantir calibration review active Last 14d ECE 0.082, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 15.2
F 15.5
V 10.3
Model 15.4% Market 9.1% Gap +5.9pp
DraftKings 960 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 54.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 54.2% Market 72.6% Gap +9.9pp
FanDuel 160 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 17.2
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 17.2% Market -- Gap +9.1pp
FanDuel 280 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.8%
3 -18 vs proj
Exit velocity85.5
21
Hard-hit%29.8%
15 -18 vs proj
xBA0.320
49
xSLG0.418
18
xwOBA0.301
44
BB%6.4%
23 -22 vs proj
Bat speed65.7
9
K%14.4%
88
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.1 · RF
85
Arm Strength95.0 · RF
65
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs0.9 · RF
59
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
34
SB Success Rate0.0% · RF
Small sample
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.9%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 31.4%
Small sample
Correct Decisions64.2%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.298 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.296 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.290
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.318 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.359
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.319
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline91
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.347
RegressionNegative · -0.079
Opposing pitcherSean Burke
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-20
Palantir 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 10059 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.011 14d stable
Valinor 4464 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Palantir 860 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.035 14d error rising
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 356 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.041 14d stable
Palantir 4739 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.076 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 288 props Brier 0.176 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 462 props Brier 0.260 ECE 0.055 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)