Mithrandir Metrics
TOR 2026-07-25 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-25

Nathan Lukes

TOR · Hitter · bats L · age 32
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupTOR vs BOSSonny Gray
Sample709.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 15 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.4
F 15.5
V 9.0
Model 14.1% Market 9.1% Gap +4.7pp
DraftKings 960 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 59.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 71.4% Market 72.6% Gap +13.1pp
BetMGM -265 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 16.0
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 16.0% Market -- Gap +15.2pp
FanDuel 220 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%0.8%
3 -17 vs proj
Exit velocity85.3
20
Hard-hit%28.8%
12 -20 vs proj
xBA0.306
31
xSLG0.400
12
xwOBA0.290
32 -24 vs proj
BB%6.2%
23 -24 vs proj
Bat speed65.5
8
K%14.1%
89
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.9 · RF
91
Arm Strength95.0 · RF
65
Outs Above Avg0.0 · RF
46
Range Runs0.5 · RF
52
Baserunning · percentile strip
Sprint Speed26.8 · RF
33
SB Success Rate0.0% · RF
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.283 to 0.347
RegressionNegative · -0.079
Opposing pitcherSonny Gray
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)