Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-07-22 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-22

Jeremy Peña

HOU · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs MIASandy Alcantara
Sample2401.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 14.1
F 14.9
V 11.6
Model 16.5% Market 11.2% Gap +4.9pp
DraftKings 765 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 39.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 41.3% Market 40.1% Gap +0.2pp
FanDuel 140 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%3.1%
21 -18 vs proj
Exit velocity87.5
42
Hard-hit%38.2%
47
xBA0.367
88
xSLG0.535
59
xwOBA0.353
86 +27 vs proj
BB%7.5%
36 +19 vs proj
Bat speed70.6
66
K%16.2%
83
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.3 · SS
86
Arm Strength89.2 · SS
71
Outs Above Avg-2.0 · SS
18
Range Runs-1.2 · SS
36
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.4 · SS
91
Bolts13.0 · SS
72
SB Success Rate88.9% · SS
75
Sprint Speed29.2 · SS
93
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 60.5%
Small sample
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.0%
Small sample
Correct Decisions67.9%
Small sample
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.297 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.271 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.271
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.319 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.351
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.345
Small sample
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline102
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.367
RegressionNegative · -0.009
Opposing pitcherSandy Alcantara
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)