Mithrandir Metrics
HOU 2026-09-11 Refreshed Sep 11 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-09-11

Jeremy Peña

HOU · Hitter · bats R · age 29
IN · 1 Negative regression Neutral
MatchupHOU vs TBDrew Rasmussen
Sample2580.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS tracking; not posted NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.060, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.063, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Hits · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.062, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 11.0
F 12.0
V 9.3
Model 14.8% Market 11.2% Gap +3.2pp
DraftKings 765 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 64.4
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 80.2% Market 81.1% Gap +16.7pp
BetMGM -430 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%4.5%
46
Exit velocity88.5
57
Hard-hit%39.1%
53
xBA0.357
87
xSLG0.553
66
xwOBA0.323
72
BB%5.5%
18
Bat speed70.6
67
K%22.7%
50 -28 vs proj
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · SS
62
Arm Strength91.3 · SS
79
Outs Above Avg-3.0 · SS
13
Range Runs-2.1 · SS
32
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs2.8 · SS
87
Bolts23.0 · SS
76
SB Success Rate90.0% · SS
82
Sprint Speed29.2 · SS
93
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 57.5%
15
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 21.5%
83
Correct Decisions64.7%
35
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline97
30
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.275 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.251 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.256
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.323 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.349
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.352
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.292 to 0.367
RegressionNegative · -0.025
Opposing pitcherDrew Rasmussen
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-11
Palantir 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 19641 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Valinor 13965 props Brier 0.113 ECE 0.003 14d stable
Palantir 1750 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1246 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.020 14d stable
Palantir 9432 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.046 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 756 props Brier 0.167 ECE 0.038 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 986 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.054 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)