Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-06-12 Refreshed Jun 15 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-06-12

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs BALShane Baz
Sample2856.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 20.9
F 17.9
V 17.9
Model 20.5% Market 16.4% Gap +3.4pp
FanDuel 485 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 65.0
F 81.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V 79.6 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 65.0% Market 76.5% Gap +2.7pp
FanDuel -155 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 25.0
F 26.8 EXPERIMENTAL
V -- in progress
PARTIAL - 2 of 3 lanes
Model 25.0% Market -- Gap +19.4pp
FanDuel 125 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.1%
77
Exit velocity90.4
78
Hard-hit%51.5%
93
xBA0.378
91
xSLG0.550
62
xwOBA0.352
79
BB%9.8%
63
Bat speed72.5
85
K%21.6%
52
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.1 · RF
51
Arm Strength100.8 · RF
96
Outs Above Avg4.0 · RF
96
Range Runs6.6 · RF
97
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-1.1 · RF
13
Bolts8.0 · RF
69
SB Success Rate66.7% · RF
21
Sprint Speed28.9 · RF
90
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 66.4%
54
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 19.7%
89
Correct Decisions69.0%
77
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
77
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.290 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.255 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.274
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.334 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.321
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.355
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.337 to 0.417
RegressionPositive · 0.013
Opposing pitcherShane Baz
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-06-14
Palantir 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 5634 props Brier 0.126 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 1176 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.013 sample building
Palantir 49 props Brier 0.228 ECE 0.190 sample building
Fangorn 13 props Brier 0.239 ECE 0.139 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 194 props Brier 0.262 ECE 0.207 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 2 props Brier 0.560 ECE 0.748 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 40 props Brier 0.249 ECE 0.040 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)