Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-17 Refreshed Jul 17 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-17

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs KCSeth Lugo
Sample2975.0career MLB AB
PROPS 2 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.2
F 14.7
V 13.9
Model 19.3% Market 16.4% Gap +2.2pp
FanDuel 485 tracking Open board
Total Bases 0.5
P 68.2
F 70.0 EXPERIMENTAL
V 68.6 EXPERIMENTAL
FULL
Model 78.9% Market 80.0% Gap +11.8pp
BetMGM -400 tracking Open board
Hits --
Hits · tracking

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.3%
81
Exit velocity91.2
87
Hard-hit%52.6%
95
xBA0.365
86
xSLG0.548
64
xwOBA0.343
81
BB%8.7%
51 -19 vs proj
Bat speed72.7
84
K%21.4%
57
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs0.8 · RF
74
Arm Strength100.8 · RF
96
Outs Above Avg2.0 · RF
90
Range Runs4.3 · RF
87
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.3 · RF
33
Bolts17.0 · RF
77
SB Success Rate68.0% · RF
23
Sprint Speed28.9 · RF
89
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.3%
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.0%
89
Correct Decisions69.2%
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.253 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.337 to 0.417
RegressionPositive · 0.003
Opposing pitcherSeth Lugo
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-07-17
Palantir 9390 props Brier 0.124 ECE 0.010 14d stable
Fangorn 9390 props Brier 0.125 ECE 0.012 14d stable
Valinor 3795 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.007 14d stable
Palantir 453 props Brier 0.245 ECE 0.004 sample building
Fangorn 18 props Brier 0.243 ECE 0.080 sample building
Valinor 32 props Brier 0.236 ECE 0.220 sample building
Palantir 3223 props Brier 0.240 ECE 0.103 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 137 props Brier 0.153 ECE 0.025 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 328 props Brier 0.265 ECE 0.083 sample building
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)