Mithrandir Metrics
SD 2026-07-22 Refreshed Sep 2 06:00 AM ET
Section III · Betting · Player detail · 2026-07-22

Fernando Tatis Jr.

SD · Hitter · bats R · age 27
IN · 1 Positive regression Neutral
MatchupSD vs ATLMartín Pérez
Sample2995.0career MLB AB
PROPS 3 available PERCENTILES 27 rows LINEUPS confirmed artifact NO PROSE templated rows only
Strikeouts · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Strikeouts · Valinor calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.068, 14d stable. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Total Bases · Palantir calibration review Last 14d ECE 0.053, 14d error rising. This flags probability calibration, not a blanket model failure.
Tonight's props · all markets for this player
Home Run 0.5
P 17.9
F 17.0
V 14.0
Model 22.6% Market 17.0% Gap +4.9pp
FanDuel 465 tracking Open board
Total Bases 2.5
P 44.5
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 44.5% Market 43.4% Gap +1.2pp
FanDuel 290 tracking Open board
Hits 1.5
P 30.9
F -- in progress
V -- in progress
INSUFFICIENT LANES
Model 30.9% Market -- Gap +6.1pp
FanDuel 170 tracking Open board
RBI --
RBI · no production board

No production board publishes this player-market cell today.

Underlying skill · actual percentile with projection tick

Percentile strip

100th = best in MLB
Hitting · percentile strip
Barrel%7.7%
84
Exit velocity91.5
89
Hard-hit%53.2%
95
xBA0.370
88
xSLG0.565
67
xwOBA0.354
86
BB%9.0%
56
Bat speed72.9
87
K%20.5%
61
Defense · percentile strip
Arm Runs1.6 · RF
90
Arm Strength100.8 · RF
96
Outs Above Avg2.0 · RF
89
Range Runs2.7 · RF
80
Baserunning · percentile strip
Base Running Runs-0.4 · RF
33
Bolts17.0 · RF
76
SB Success Rate68.0% · RF
23
Sprint Speed28.9 · RF
89
Mithrandir+ · percentile strip
Avoids Bad ChasesST 67.3%
59
Avoids Bad TakesHPT 20.0%
89
Correct Decisions69.2%
80
SEAGER+ Plate Discipline107
82
Resists Breaking - horizontalwOBA 0.295 · small sample
small sample
Resists Breaking - verticalwOBA 0.253 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists ChangeupwOBA 0.291
Small sample
Resists Cutters + splitterswOBA 0.328 · thin sample
thin sample
Resists FastballwOBA 0.318
Small sample
Resists SinkerwOBA 0.357
Small sample

Context

projection · regression · matchup
Projected range0.337 to 0.417
RegressionPositive · 0.003
Opposing pitcherMartín Pérez
EnvironmentNeutral
Lane calibration receipts
Lane Health 2026-09-02
Palantir 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.008 14d stable
Fangorn 18081 props Brier 0.118 ECE 0.009 14d stable
Valinor 12423 props Brier 0.112 ECE 0.004 14d stable
Palantir 1591 props Brier 0.247 ECE 0.006 14d stable
Fangorn 53 props Brier 0.257 ECE 0.119 sample building
Valinor 1087 props Brier 0.248 ECE 0.016 14d stable
Palantir 8613 props Brier 0.238 ECE 0.047 14d error rising
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 683 props Brier 0.163 ECE 0.031 14d stable
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir 900 props Brier 0.256 ECE 0.059 14d error falling
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)
Palantir tracking in progress (0 logged)
Fangorn tracking in progress (0 logged)
Valinor tracking in progress (0 logged)